Sunday, June 01, 2008
Metals tumble on rising LME stocks
Yahoo! Malaysia News
Industrial metals lead, zinc and tin fell sharply on Thursday, hit by waning demand and rising stockpiles in warehouses.
While zinc is certainly down from recent highs (as much as $2 in December/January 06/7) to "only" a buck now, it was 50 cents 5 years ago. So we still have some adjusting to do to get back to historical levels.
The other metals are the same story. Copper was $4 recently, now it's "only" $3.67. But 5 years ago, less than a buck.
A year ago nickel touched $25 briefly. It's currently $10, but was $5 5 years ago.
Industrial metals lead, zinc and tin fell sharply on Thursday, hit by waning demand and rising stockpiles in warehouses.
While zinc is certainly down from recent highs (as much as $2 in December/January 06/7) to "only" a buck now, it was 50 cents 5 years ago. So we still have some adjusting to do to get back to historical levels.
The other metals are the same story. Copper was $4 recently, now it's "only" $3.67. But 5 years ago, less than a buck.
A year ago nickel touched $25 briefly. It's currently $10, but was $5 5 years ago.
Labels: Copper, nickel, steel, zinc
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Copper drops, but not as much as you might think (or wish for)
For an amusing hour or so yesterday, Kitco, my favorite metals reporting web site, was claiming that Copper had dropped a dollar to $2 and change. It must have been a reporting glitch, because later the metal went back up to $3 and change. But for a few minutes there I was ready to break out the champagne.
But copper at $3 is a lot better than a year ago, when it was up to $4.
Likewise, zinc is still above "normal" levels, but has subsided recently to a buck (it had been $2 just over a year ago).
Nickel, having been close to $25 a year ago, is down around half that now. For a while, in late 2007, it was actually down under 12
But copper at $3 is a lot better than a year ago, when it was up to $4.
Likewise, zinc is still above "normal" levels, but has subsided recently to a buck (it had been $2 just over a year ago).
Nickel, having been close to $25 a year ago, is down around half that now. For a while, in late 2007, it was actually down under 12
Labels: brass, Copper, nickel, zinc
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Nickel Pricing forecast for the short and medium term
From: MEPS
Nickel prices moved lower in July as they fell further into their deep descent. The July monthly average is set to be around $US8,500 per tonne lower than June's figure. Values are now forecast to go below the psychological $US30,000 per tonne in August as stocks on the LME continue to rise. There is still the possibility for another severe drop in the cost of nickel. Stability should return to the market later this year as production cuts from stainless steel producers over the Summer months come to an end. New nickel capacity, due on stream later this year and in 2008, is expected to prevent values rising dramatically before the end of the forecast period.
Nickel prices moved lower in July as they fell further into their deep descent. The July monthly average is set to be around $US8,500 per tonne lower than June's figure. Values are now forecast to go below the psychological $US30,000 per tonne in August as stocks on the LME continue to rise. There is still the possibility for another severe drop in the cost of nickel. Stability should return to the market later this year as production cuts from stainless steel producers over the Summer months come to an end. New nickel capacity, due on stream later this year and in 2008, is expected to prevent values rising dramatically before the end of the forecast period.
STAINLESS STEEL PRICES IN TURMOIL AFTER COLLAPSE OF NICKEL ON LME
From MEPS, a steel-supplier-side news service, but important for us steel consumers too.
Western stainless steel producers of strip mill products have temporarily abandoned their traditional basis plus surcharge mechanism for selling their material. Most EU and US mills are now quoting only transaction (effective) figures. This is, principally, to disguise the discounts necessary to obtain orders after the fall in the price of nickel since early June.
Technically, surcharges in July for grade 304 increased by around 5 and 3 percent in the EU and US, respectively. With the prospect of them falling over the next two months by almost €750 and $US1400 per tonne it is not surprising that customers are refusing to pay the current inflated figures. The alloy surcharge is almost meaningless in negotiations at this time.
Mill orders have dried up. Many producers have plans to cut output in the short term but are pushing material into stock and selling at substantially discounted levels to generate the limited business available.
Western stainless steel producers of strip mill products have temporarily abandoned their traditional basis plus surcharge mechanism for selling their material. Most EU and US mills are now quoting only transaction (effective) figures. This is, principally, to disguise the discounts necessary to obtain orders after the fall in the price of nickel since early June.
Technically, surcharges in July for grade 304 increased by around 5 and 3 percent in the EU and US, respectively. With the prospect of them falling over the next two months by almost €750 and $US1400 per tonne it is not surprising that customers are refusing to pay the current inflated figures. The alloy surcharge is almost meaningless in negotiations at this time.
Mill orders have dried up. Many producers have plans to cut output in the short term but are pushing material into stock and selling at substantially discounted levels to generate the limited business available.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCERS SET TO ACTIVELY PROMOTE NICKEL-FREE GRADES
The question becomes, will end use customers accept the new materials? Will they form similarly enough that they can be used with existing tooling? Or will jobs need to be retooled?
Our experience with one these grades (409) was that it was less "stainless", and that it required different tool steels to cut and form.
The significant investment in new equipment by steel mills implies they believe the run-up in nickel prices is not going to be short-lived. They presumably know - they're in the business. But re-tooling decisions (if needed) of stamping jobs would be made with people with less experience forecasting the future. So it isn't clear if customers will be able to switch all that quickly.
MEPS
The global stainless steel scene is changing rapidly. Customer backlash against the rising cost of nickel has been taken on board by the producers. Mills are now taking seriously market demand for low or non nickel grades.
Posco has launched a nickel free stainless steel into its portfolio. This follows similar actions earlier by Japanese producers. Outokumpu, which has traditionally been mainly a supplier of austenitic grades, is to increase its production of ferritic types. This has involved a significant investment in new equipment. Output of ferritic grades is also to be expanded from the new melting shop at Lianzhong, in China.
Global supplies of 300 series material have in the past formed 75 percent of total stainless deliveries. It is interesting to note that Thyssen Krupp recently announced that it may lift output of nickel free steel from the existing figure of 30 percent up to 35 percent. We have reports that an Arcelor Mittal senior executive sees the potential to push up production of non nickel grades to 70 percent in the long term.
Our experience with one these grades (409) was that it was less "stainless", and that it required different tool steels to cut and form.
The significant investment in new equipment by steel mills implies they believe the run-up in nickel prices is not going to be short-lived. They presumably know - they're in the business. But re-tooling decisions (if needed) of stamping jobs would be made with people with less experience forecasting the future. So it isn't clear if customers will be able to switch all that quickly.
MEPS
The global stainless steel scene is changing rapidly. Customer backlash against the rising cost of nickel has been taken on board by the producers. Mills are now taking seriously market demand for low or non nickel grades.
Posco has launched a nickel free stainless steel into its portfolio. This follows similar actions earlier by Japanese producers. Outokumpu, which has traditionally been mainly a supplier of austenitic grades, is to increase its production of ferritic types. This has involved a significant investment in new equipment. Output of ferritic grades is also to be expanded from the new melting shop at Lianzhong, in China.
Global supplies of 300 series material have in the past formed 75 percent of total stainless deliveries. It is interesting to note that Thyssen Krupp recently announced that it may lift output of nickel free steel from the existing figure of 30 percent up to 35 percent. We have reports that an Arcelor Mittal senior executive sees the potential to push up production of non nickel grades to 70 percent in the long term.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Korean firm introduces nickel-free stainless steel
The Toronto Star
Posco, the world's fourth-largest steel maker, will raise output of a nickel-free stainless steel fivefold next year as the price of nickel has hit a record.
Posco plans to sell 10,000 tonnes a month of the steel, which it introduced this month, from 2,000 this year, the Pohang-based firm said yesterday. The steel, which uses chromium instead of nickel, is the equivalent of $2,762 (Canadian) a tonne, half the price of so-called 300-series cold-rolled coil steel.
Posco, the world's fourth-largest steel maker, will raise output of a nickel-free stainless steel fivefold next year as the price of nickel has hit a record.
Posco plans to sell 10,000 tonnes a month of the steel, which it introduced this month, from 2,000 this year, the Pohang-based firm said yesterday. The steel, which uses chromium instead of nickel, is the equivalent of $2,762 (Canadian) a tonne, half the price of so-called 300-series cold-rolled coil steel.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Material Pricing
Here's a brief update on material pricing.
Zinc has now fallen from the $2 US/lb that it was late last year to about $1.50 US now. However, many platers buy zinc on contract, and so until their contracts run out, higher prices will prevail. By comparison, zinc was $0.50 in June of '05
Copper is again on the rise. It got down as far as $2.50 in February, but is up around $3.30 now. A year ago it was $4.00, so it's a bit off the peak, but not enough to feel comfortable.
Nickel is climbing and shows no sign of stopping. It's currently about $22.75, up from $16 at the year boundary, from $8 a year ago, and $3 five years ago.
Zinc is used in almost every method of rust-proofing steel (except stainless steel). Nickel is used in stainless steel. Brass is a combination of zinc and copper.
Zinc has now fallen from the $2 US/lb that it was late last year to about $1.50 US now. However, many platers buy zinc on contract, and so until their contracts run out, higher prices will prevail. By comparison, zinc was $0.50 in June of '05
Copper is again on the rise. It got down as far as $2.50 in February, but is up around $3.30 now. A year ago it was $4.00, so it's a bit off the peak, but not enough to feel comfortable.
Nickel is climbing and shows no sign of stopping. It's currently about $22.75, up from $16 at the year boundary, from $8 a year ago, and $3 five years ago.
Zinc is used in almost every method of rust-proofing steel (except stainless steel). Nickel is used in stainless steel. Brass is a combination of zinc and copper.
Labels: brass, Copper, nickel, steel, zinc
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Material Prices
Copper has bounced and is back on the rise. From a low of $2.40 a few weeks ago, it's gone back up to $3. It's still a whole lot better than the $4 it hit a while back, but not nearly low enough or stable enough for metal stampers to specify it reliably.
Other metals:
Zinc, having hit $2, is down to $1.45, but there was a short run up a few weeks ago.
Nickel, which was $3 5 years ago, is now $22, more than 5 times the price of 5 years ago and shows no sign of slowing down.
You can see the historical charts yourself here: Copper, Zinc & Nickel
all courtesy of Kitco Metals.
Other metals:
Zinc, having hit $2, is down to $1.45, but there was a short run up a few weeks ago.
Nickel, which was $3 5 years ago, is now $22, more than 5 times the price of 5 years ago and shows no sign of slowing down.
You can see the historical charts yourself here: Copper, Zinc & Nickel
all courtesy of Kitco Metals.
Labels: brass, Copper, nickel, zinc
